  =============================================
    Example: Microsatellite data set           
  =============================================
  MIGRATION RATE AND POPULATION SIZE ESTIMATION
  using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation
  =============================================
  Version debug 3.2.17

  Program started at Sun Mar 18 20:55:54 2012
         finished at Sun Mar 18 21:04:46 2012
     


Options in use:
---------------

Analysis strategy is                                    Bayesian

Proposal distribution:
Parameter group          Proposal type
-----------------------  -------------------
Population size (Theta)       Slice sampling
Migration rate      (M)       Slice sampling


Prior distribution:
Parameter group          Prior type   Minimum    Mean(*)    Maximum    Delta
-----------------------  ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Population size (Theta)      Uniform  0.000000  10.000000  20.000000   2.000000 
Migration rate      (M)      Uniform  0.000000  10.000000  20.000000   2.000000 



Datatype: Microsatellite data [Brownian motion]
Missing data is not included

Inheritance scalers in use for Thetas (specified scalars=1)
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 

[Each Theta uses the (true) ineritance scalar of the first locus as a reference]


Data set was subsampled: used a random sample of size: 5


Pseudo-random number generator: Mersenne-Twister                                
Random number seed (from parmfile)            310705631

Start parameters:
   First genealogy was started using a UPGMA-tree
   Theta values were generated  RANDOM start value from U(min,max)
   M values were generated from the FST-calculation

Migration model: Arbitrary migration matrix model            
[Legend: m = average (average over a group of Thetas or M]
[s = symmetric M, S = symmetric 4Nm,
 0 = zero, and not estimated,   ]
[* = free to vary, Thetas are on diagonal]
population     * 0 * * 
     test1     * * * * 
     test2     * * * * 
population     * * * * 



Mutation rate is constant for all loci

Markov chain settings:
   Long chains (long-chains):                              1
      Steps sampled (inc*samples*rep):                 10000
      Steps recorded (sample*rep):                     10000
   Combining over replicates:                              2
   Static heating scheme
      4 chains with  temperatures
       1.00, 1.50, 3.00,1000000.00
      Swapping interval is 1
   Number of discard trees per chain:                  10000

Print options:
   Data file:                                    infile.msat
   Output file (ASCII text):                   outfile-bayes
   Output file (PDF):                      outfile-bayes.pdf
   Posterior distribution:                         bayesfile
   Print data:                                            No
   Print genealogies:                                     No
   Plot data: No                                            

Summary of data:
Title:                      Example: Microsatellite data set
Data file:                                       infile.msat
Datatype:                                Microsatellite data
Number of loci:                                           10


Data set was subsampled and used a random sample of size: 5

Locus Population Individuals
----- ---------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 population 0BBK_0BAH 0BBG_0BBM 
      test1      0BAJ_0BAB 0BAL_0BBL 0BAR_0BBW 
      test2      0BAQ_0BBS 0BAS_0BBT 0BBH_0BAA 0BAX_0BCA 0BBB_0BBX 
      population 1BAA_1BAF 1BAQ_1BAN 1BBK_1BAS 1BAL_1BAV 1BAE_1BAI 
    2 population 0BBK_0BAH 0BBG_0BBM 
      test1      0BAJ_0BAB 0BAL_0BBL 0BAR_0BBW 
      test2      0BAQ_0BBS 0BAS_0BBT 0BBH_0BAA 0BAX_0BCA 0BBB_0BBX 
      population 1BAA_1BAF 1BAQ_1BAN 1BBK_1BAS 1BAL_1BAV 1BAE_1BAI 
    3 population 0BBK_0BAH 0BBG_0BBM 
      test1      0BAJ_0BAB 0BAL_0BBL 0BAR_0BBW 
      test2      0BAQ_0BBS 0BAS_0BBT 0BBH_0BAA 0BAX_0BCA 0BBB_0BBX 
      population 1BAA_1BAF 1BAQ_1BAN 1BBK_1BAS 1BAL_1BAV 1BAE_1BAI 
    4 population 0BBK_0BAH 0BBG_0BBM 
      test1      0BAJ_0BAB 0BAL_0BBL 0BAR_0BBW 
      test2      0BAQ_0BBS 0BAS_0BBT 0BBH_0BAA 0BAX_0BCA 0BBB_0BBX 
      population 1BAA_1BAF 1BAQ_1BAN 1BBK_1BAS 1BAL_1BAV 1BAE_1BAI 
    5 population 0BBK_0BAH 0BBG_0BBM 
      test1      0BAJ_0BAB 0BAL_0BBL 0BAR_0BBW 
      test2      0BAQ_0BBS 0BAS_0BBT 0BBH_0BAA 0BAX_0BCA 0BBB_0BBX 
      population 1BAA_1BAF 1BAQ_1BAN 1BBK_1BAS 1BAL_1BAV 1BAE_1BAI 
    6 population 0BBK_0BAH 0BBG_0BBM 
      test1      0BAJ_0BAB 0BAL_0BBL 0BAR_0BBW 
      test2      0BAQ_0BBS 0BAS_0BBT 0BBH_0BAA 0BAX_0BCA 0BBB_0BBX 
      population 1BAA_1BAF 1BAQ_1BAN 1BBK_1BAS 1BAL_1BAV 1BAE_1BAI 
    7 population 0BBK_0BAH 0BBG_0BBM 
      test1      0BAJ_0BAB 0BAL_0BBL 0BAR_0BBW 
      test2      0BAQ_0BBS 0BAS_0BBT 0BBH_0BAA 0BAX_0BCA 0BBB_0BBX 
      population 1BAA_1BAF 1BAQ_1BAN 1BBK_1BAS 1BAL_1BAV 1BAE_1BAI 
    8 population 0BBK_0BAH 0BBG_0BBM 
      test1      0BAJ_0BAB 0BAL_0BBL 0BAR_0BBW 
      test2      0BAQ_0BBS 0BAS_0BBT 0BBH_0BAA 0BAX_0BCA 0BBB_0BBX 
      population 1BAA_1BAF 1BAQ_1BAN 1BBK_1BAS 1BAL_1BAV 1BAE_1BAI 
    9 population 0BBK_0BAH 0BBG_0BBM 
      test1      0BAJ_0BAB 0BAL_0BBL 0BAR_0BBW 
      test2      0BAQ_0BBS 0BAS_0BBT 0BBH_0BAA 0BAX_0BCA 0BBB_0BBX 
      population 1BAA_1BAF 1BAQ_1BAN 1BBK_1BAS 1BAL_1BAV 1BAE_1BAI 
   10 population 0BBK_0BAH 0BBG_0BBM 
      test1      0BAJ_0BAB 0BAL_0BBL 0BAR_0BBW 
      test2      0BAQ_0BBS 0BAS_0BBT 0BBH_0BAA 0BAX_0BCA 0BBB_0BBX 
      population 1BAA_1BAF 1BAQ_1BAN 1BBK_1BAS 1BAL_1BAV 1BAE_1BAI 
Population                   Locus   Gene copies    
                                     ---------------
                                     data  (missing)
----------------------------------------------------
  1 population_number___0        1      4 (0)
  1                              2      4 (0)
  1                              3      4 (0)
  1                              4      4 (0)
  1                              5      4 (0)
  1                              6      4 (0)
  1                              7      4 (0)
  1                              8      4 (0)
  1                              9      4 (0)
  1                             10      4 (0)
  2 test1                        1      6 (0)
  2                              2      6 (0)
  2                              3      6 (0)
  2                              4      6 (0)
  2                              5      6 (0)
  2                              6      6 (0)
  2                              7      6 (0)
  2                              8      6 (0)
  2                              9      6 (0)
  2                             10      6 (0)
  3 test2                        1     40 (0)
  3                              2     40 (0)
  3                              3     40 (0)
  3                              4     40 (0)
  3                              5     40 (0)
  3                              6     40 (0)
  3                              7     40 (0)
  3                              8     40 (0)
  3                              9     40 (0)
  3                             10     40 (0)
  4 population_number___1        1     42 (0)
  4                              2     42 (0)
  4                              3     42 (0)
  4                              4     42 (0)
  4                              5     42 (0)
  4                              6     42 (0)
  4                              7     42 (0)
  4                              8     42 (0)
  4                              9     42 (0)
  4                             10     42 (0)
    Total of all populations     1     92 (0)
                                 2     92 (0)
                                 3     92 (0)
                                 4     92 (0)
                                 5     92 (0)
                                 6     92 (0)
                                 7     92 (0)
                                 8     92 (0)
                                 9     92 (0)
                                10     92 (0)

Allele frequency spectra
========================

Locus 1
Allele  Pop1   Pop2   Pop3   Pop4   All
------------------------------------------
    16  0.500  0.833  0.100  0.167  0.196
    19  0.250    -    0.025  0.071  0.054
    18  0.250    -    0.050  0.119  0.087
    15    -    0.167  0.250  0.024  0.130
    21    -      -    0.025  0.167  0.087
    23    -      -    0.025  0.119  0.065
    17    -      -    0.350  0.095  0.196
    22    -      -    0.075  0.119  0.087
    25    -      -    0.075  0.024  0.043
    24    -      -    0.025    -    0.011
    26    -      -      -    0.024  0.011
    27    -      -      -    0.048  0.022
    29    -      -      -    0.024  0.011
Total       3      2     10     12     13
H_exp   0.625  0.278  0.789  0.883  0.874

Locus 2
Allele  Pop1   Pop2   Pop3   Pop4   All
------------------------------------------
    16  0.500  0.333  0.550  0.571  0.543
    19  0.250    -    0.025    -    0.022
    18  0.250  0.500  0.175  0.119  0.174
    17    -    0.167  0.175  0.167  0.163
    15    -      -    0.025    -    0.011
    21    -      -    0.025  0.071  0.043
    20    -      -    0.025  0.024  0.022
    22    -      -      -    0.048  0.022
Total       3      3      7      6      8
H_exp   0.625  0.611  0.634  0.624  0.644

Locus 3
Allele  Pop1   Pop2   Pop3   Pop4   All
------------------------------------------
    19  0.250  0.333  0.225  0.262  0.250
    20  0.500  0.500  0.225  0.476  0.370
    18  0.250  0.167  0.050  0.095  0.087
    21    -      -    0.350  0.119  0.207
    22    -      -    0.150  0.048  0.087
Total       3      3      5      5      5
H_exp   0.625  0.611  0.751  0.679  0.743

Locus 4
Allele  Pop1   Pop2   Pop3   Pop4   All
------------------------------------------
    16  0.500  0.333    -    0.071  0.076
    24  0.500  0.167  0.150  0.024  0.109
    15    -    0.167    -    0.048  0.033
    25    -    0.333  0.150  0.167  0.163
    14    -      -    0.025  0.048  0.033
    19    -      -    0.125  0.143  0.120
    12    -      -    0.075    -    0.033
    20    -      -    0.100  0.190  0.130
    23    -      -    0.075  0.119  0.087
    28    -      -    0.025    -    0.011
    22    -      -    0.075  0.024  0.043
    21    -      -    0.200  0.119  0.141
    13    -      -      -    0.024  0.011
    26    -      -      -    0.024  0.011
Total       2      4     10     12     14
H_exp   0.500  0.722  0.871  0.875  0.892

Locus 5
Allele  Pop1   Pop2   Pop3   Pop4   All
------------------------------------------
    20  0.500  0.500  0.375  0.524  0.457
    21  0.500  0.500  0.400  0.357  0.391
    19    -      -    0.225  0.119  0.152
Total       2      2      3      3      3
H_exp   0.500  0.500  0.649  0.584  0.615

Locus 6
Allele  Pop1   Pop2   Pop3   Pop4   All
------------------------------------------
    19  0.250    -    0.050    -    0.033
    20  0.500  0.167  0.050  0.024  0.065
    18  0.250  0.500  0.275  0.214  0.261
    22    -    0.167  0.225  0.119  0.163
    21    -    0.167  0.125  0.476  0.283
    16    -      -    0.075    -    0.033
    24    -      -    0.200  0.048  0.109
    17    -      -      -    0.119  0.054
Total       3      4      7      6      8
H_exp   0.625  0.667  0.807  0.696  0.804

Locus 7
Allele  Pop1   Pop2   Pop3   Pop4   All
------------------------------------------
    23  0.250    -    0.025  0.238  0.130
    20  0.250    -    0.800  0.143  0.424
    22  0.500  0.833  0.050  0.190  0.185
    21    -    0.167  0.100  0.333  0.207
    19    -      -    0.025  0.095  0.054
Total       3      2      5      5      5
H_exp   0.625  0.278  0.346  0.766  0.724

Locus 8
Allele  Pop1   Pop2   Pop3   Pop4   All
------------------------------------------
    19  0.500  0.500  0.525  0.524  0.522
    17  0.500    -      -    0.048  0.043
    18    -    0.500  0.050  0.071  0.087
    20    -      -    0.175  0.190  0.163
    16    -      -    0.100    -    0.043
    22    -      -    0.125  0.048  0.076
    15    -      -    0.025  0.048  0.033
    23    -      -      -    0.071  0.033
Total       2      2      6      7      8
H_exp   0.500  0.500  0.665  0.672  0.682

Locus 9
Allele  Pop1   Pop2   Pop3   Pop4   All
------------------------------------------
    24  0.500  0.333    -    0.024  0.054
    19  0.500    -    0.325  0.429  0.359
    20    -    0.500  0.300  0.167  0.239
    23    -    0.167  0.200  0.143  0.163
    22    -      -    0.100  0.024  0.054
    18    -      -    0.025  0.071  0.043
    21    -      -    0.050  0.095  0.065
    25    -      -      -    0.048  0.022
Total       2      3      6      8      8
H_exp   0.500  0.611  0.751  0.751  0.775

Locus 10
Allele  Pop1   Pop2   Pop3   Pop4   All
------------------------------------------
    22  0.500  0.167  0.050  0.214  0.152
    20  0.500  0.500  0.425  0.214  0.337
    23    -    0.167  0.075  0.167  0.120
    24    -    0.167    -      -    0.011
    19    -      -    0.200  0.167  0.163
    21    -      -    0.075  0.048  0.054
    18    -      -    0.100    -    0.043
    15    -      -    0.025  0.071  0.043
    17    -      -    0.050  0.048  0.043
    25    -      -      -    0.071  0.033
Total       2      4      8      8     10
H_exp   0.500  0.667  0.753  0.838  0.813

Average expected heterozygosity
Pop1   Pop2   Pop3   Pop4   All
-----------------------------------
0.562  0.544  0.702  0.737  0.757




Bayesian estimates
==================

Locus Parameter        2.5%      25.0%    mode     75.0%   97.5%     median   mean
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1  Theta_1         0.80000  1.40000  1.94000  2.60000  3.04000 10.98000 10.72450
    1  Theta_2        11.88000 14.36000 14.90000 15.40000 16.20000 10.10000 10.15363
    1  Theta_3         9.52000 11.48000 11.98000 13.80000 19.92000 12.90000 12.90064
    1  Theta_4         2.60000  3.24000  4.42000  5.52000 11.60000  8.10000  8.94215
    1  M_3->1             5.20     7.16     7.50     8.32     8.68     4.74     4.70
    1  M_4->1             0.28     0.52     1.22     1.84     2.92     1.78     3.07
    1  M_1->2             6.28    14.24    14.58    15.04    18.32    12.30    12.05
    1  M_3->2             0.68     1.64     2.66     4.08     5.68     4.06     5.17
    1  M_4->2             1.32     1.68     2.86     4.40     6.08    12.22    10.19
    1  M_1->3             0.00     0.00     0.18     0.48     2.32     0.78     0.82
    1  M_2->3             0.00     0.00     0.42     1.04     2.52     1.06     1.56
    1  M_4->3             0.36     0.60     0.98     1.40     3.16     1.34     1.52
    1  M_1->4             0.08     0.32     0.70     1.12     3.92     1.70     1.82
    1  M_2->4             0.60     1.08     1.50     1.84     2.84     1.62     1.63
    1  M_3->4             0.00     0.04     0.34     0.52     1.08     0.46     0.45
    2  Theta_1         0.20000  0.28000  0.70000  1.04000 12.32000  7.78000  8.49444
    2  Theta_2         7.48000  8.04000  8.66000  9.84000 17.44000 10.82000 11.15563
    2  Theta_3         0.08000  0.24000  1.98000  3.56000  4.52000  5.58000  6.78894
    2  Theta_4         1.76000  4.04000  4.98000  6.00000  6.28000  7.90000  9.16040
    2  M_3->1             4.20     6.40     7.74     8.84    11.28     7.18     6.60
    2  M_4->1             4.04     8.52    10.38    10.76    13.16     9.50     9.05
    2  M_1->2             1.08     2.04     2.70     4.60     8.84     4.06     4.95
    2  M_3->2             0.00     0.00     1.18     2.12     2.44     2.98     5.51
    2  M_4->2            17.64    19.32    19.78    20.00    20.00    12.18    10.94
    2  M_1->3             0.00     1.00     2.10     2.84     7.12     2.22     2.96
    2  M_2->3             0.60     1.00     1.98     2.52     8.60     4.38     5.19
    2  M_4->3             2.24     3.76     5.34     6.36     8.00     5.58     7.39
    2  M_1->4             5.12     7.40     8.78     9.20     9.68     6.18     5.85
    2  M_2->4             0.00     1.16     1.86     2.88     6.56     2.46     2.94
    2  M_3->4             0.92     1.76     3.38     3.88     7.20     3.50     4.09
    3  Theta_1         0.28000  1.56000  2.54000  3.52000  9.44000  4.30000  6.24880
    3  Theta_2        15.92000 16.20000 16.58000 17.44000 17.76000  9.90000  9.97647
    3  Theta_3        10.40000 14.60000 14.98000 15.32000 17.28000 10.02000 10.22500
    3  Theta_4         2.16000  6.56000  7.58000  8.16000 11.08000  8.50000  9.67465
    3  M_3->1             0.00     1.64     2.18     3.48    10.16     3.74     4.87
    3  M_4->1             0.84     2.60     3.62     4.80     9.60     4.66     5.20
    3  M_1->2            14.24    15.68    16.10    16.48    19.72    11.38    10.88
    3  M_3->2             4.40     9.56    10.30    11.28    13.76    10.98    11.55
    3  M_4->2             2.80     8.24     8.94     9.48     9.96     8.98     9.47
    3  M_1->3             6.00    18.72    19.22    19.52    19.72    12.30    12.07
    3  M_2->3             1.76     3.68     5.94     7.44    11.00     6.42     6.64
    3  M_4->3            14.56    14.88    15.22    16.28    18.92    12.78    12.18
    3  M_1->4             0.12     0.36     1.50     2.36     2.92     2.54     6.93
    3  M_2->4             0.00     0.16     0.82     1.88     2.08     2.26     4.77
    3  M_3->4             0.16     0.84     1.54     2.28     6.44     2.02     2.90
    4  Theta_1        12.32000 14.92000 15.34000 15.72000 16.44000 11.66000 11.43519
    4  Theta_2        15.20000 19.24000 19.74000 20.00000 20.00000 12.02000 11.14516
    4  Theta_3         9.64000 17.68000 18.34000 18.92000 20.00000 15.38000 14.85138
    4  Theta_4        13.04000 15.28000 16.30000 16.76000 19.68000 12.62000 12.62024
    4  M_3->1             0.00     0.12     1.06     2.48     2.96     4.50     6.07
    4  M_4->1             2.64     3.00     4.22     5.28     6.16     5.18     8.17
    4  M_1->2             0.20     0.56     1.18     1.76     3.60     1.90     2.96
    4  M_3->2             0.32     1.28     1.66     2.12     2.80     1.74     1.67
    4  M_4->2             0.00     0.44     0.86     1.20     1.96     0.94     0.95
    4  M_1->3             0.40     0.68     1.06     1.64     3.20     1.46     1.65
    4  M_2->3             0.00     0.56     1.14     1.44     2.16     1.14     1.24
    4  M_4->3             0.80     3.00     3.34     3.72     5.36     3.38     3.30
    4  M_1->4             0.04     0.68     1.22     1.52     2.04     1.14     1.09
    4  M_2->4             0.36     1.04     1.42     1.92     3.00     1.62     1.63
    4  M_3->4             0.32     0.96     1.46     1.96     3.88     2.30     3.06
    5  Theta_1         0.00000  0.08000  0.54000  1.04000  5.04000  1.54000  2.48698
    5  Theta_2         0.00000  0.04000  0.46000  1.84000  2.12000  8.78000  8.92318
    5  Theta_3         4.16000  6.52000  7.06000  8.48000 12.52000  9.42000 10.30697
    5  Theta_4         0.76000  1.36000  1.94000  2.56000  3.24000  9.34000  9.66627
    5  M_3->1             0.00     2.72     3.34     3.84     7.32     3.42     3.91
    5  M_4->1             3.64     5.12     5.70     8.28    11.04     6.82     6.93
    5  M_1->2            14.08    18.88    19.70    20.00    20.00    14.34    13.08
    5  M_3->2            13.20    13.48    13.94    14.44    16.48     9.42     9.29
    5  M_4->2             0.44     1.20     1.78     3.40    12.12     6.10     7.65
    5  M_1->3            11.68    11.80    12.22    12.60    17.80    10.46    10.29
    5  M_2->3             2.04     6.52     7.46     8.68    15.52     7.78     8.35
    5  M_4->3             1.44     3.40     4.26     5.52    11.56     6.74     7.76
    5  M_1->4             9.12    14.88    15.46    16.48    20.00    15.30    14.19
    5  M_2->4             1.72     5.92     6.94     9.16    11.32     8.18     8.97
    5  M_3->4             0.16     0.32     0.70     3.92     5.92     7.10     7.80
    6  Theta_1         3.84000  8.88000  9.34000  9.80000 15.52000 10.18000 10.49855
    6  Theta_2         4.08000  4.44000  5.06000  5.44000 10.28000 10.70000 10.61620
    6  Theta_3         1.08000  3.24000  5.38000  5.80000  6.16000  8.22000  8.73635
    6  Theta_4         1.64000  6.36000  6.94000  7.56000 11.00000  7.26000  8.70139
    6  M_3->1             0.00     0.00     0.30     1.36     1.96     3.94     4.18
    6  M_4->1             0.64     0.88     1.54     2.56     3.52     4.86     6.83
    6  M_1->2             0.20     0.32     0.78     1.16     1.40     2.66     2.59
    6  M_3->2             0.56     1.52     2.78     3.28     3.88     3.90     5.41
    6  M_4->2             1.08     1.80     2.62     3.08     5.88     2.98     3.31
    6  M_1->3             0.00     0.00     0.02     0.92     3.32     1.54     1.56
    6  M_2->3             2.84     6.72     7.30     7.80    13.60     7.06     7.61
    6  M_4->3             7.16    10.44    11.74    12.12    13.88     9.42     8.43
    6  M_1->4             0.68     1.16     1.74     2.40     4.20     2.10     2.25
    6  M_2->4             0.88     3.52     3.82     4.12     5.00     3.02     3.16
    6  M_3->4             1.28     2.04     2.50     2.88     7.88     4.90     4.87
    7  Theta_1         0.52000  0.88000  2.18000  3.08000  6.96000  3.54000  6.12135
    7  Theta_2         0.00000  0.00000  0.42000  2.52000  4.00000  6.86000  8.16136
    7  Theta_3         0.40000  0.64000  1.34000  2.68000  5.92000  3.90000  6.42714
    7  Theta_4         0.84000  1.72000  2.46000  3.32000  4.92000  9.14000  9.65045
    7  M_3->1             9.48    12.00    12.42    13.36    14.68     8.62     8.28
    7  M_4->1             1.52     5.92     6.38     7.52     7.92     5.18     5.18
    7  M_1->2            15.64    16.96    17.50    18.60    19.68    13.18    13.06
    7  M_3->2             6.20     9.76    10.18    11.80    12.80    11.50    12.47
    7  M_4->2             4.16     7.60     8.90    10.20    10.40     9.94    10.75
    7  M_1->3             1.88     2.12     2.62     3.68    11.20     5.70     6.21
    7  M_2->3             2.40     5.52     6.78     8.16     9.12     6.66     6.77
    7  M_4->3             0.20     0.52     1.58     3.52     4.52     5.06     7.17
    7  M_1->4             1.72     3.60     3.98     5.36    11.96     6.54     7.23
    7  M_2->4             0.28     0.64     1.18     1.72     9.52     7.06     7.57
    7  M_3->4             0.24     3.52     5.06     5.68    10.56     4.86     5.77
    8  Theta_1         1.00000  3.32000  4.30000  5.16000 10.40000  5.22000  6.66983
    8  Theta_2         4.88000  7.80000  8.22000  8.64000  9.36000  8.62000  9.80088
    8  Theta_3        17.56000 19.36000 19.74000 20.00000 20.00000 11.14000 11.20181
    8  Theta_4         2.00000  2.20000  2.58000  3.04000 11.60000  9.30000  9.84006
    8  M_3->1             0.64     1.28     1.78     2.40     4.16     2.18     2.40
    8  M_4->1             0.00     0.84     1.42     2.40     3.88     2.78     4.73
    8  M_1->2             7.16    15.48    16.02    16.72    19.64    12.38    12.22
    8  M_3->2             1.48     1.72     3.22     4.68     5.64     8.50     9.01
    8  M_4->2             1.92     2.32     3.02     5.80     7.36     6.06     7.76
    8  M_1->3             0.92     1.88     2.42     3.32     8.56     4.74     4.86
    8  M_2->3             0.52     0.88     1.66     2.72     7.84     2.94     4.31
    8  M_4->3             2.00     2.84     3.38     4.80    10.96     5.86     6.23
    8  M_1->4             3.88     5.84     6.90     8.24    12.28     7.70     8.18
    8  M_2->4             3.32     5.28     6.66     7.80    10.64     6.98     7.21
    8  M_3->4             1.76     3.68     4.34     4.88     5.76    10.06     9.44
    9  Theta_1         0.00000  0.00000  0.98000  1.68000  3.36000  7.62000  8.00587
    9  Theta_2        14.36000 19.16000 19.74000 20.00000 20.00000 13.30000 11.88083
    9  Theta_3         6.16000  9.48000 10.54000 11.84000 16.24000 11.66000 12.09658
    9  Theta_4         1.24000  1.48000  2.74000  3.12000  3.56000  8.94000  9.47806
    9  M_3->1             0.20     2.40     3.34     4.04     6.20     3.58     4.42
    9  M_4->1             8.68    14.76    15.34    15.84    16.52    13.42    13.45
    9  M_1->2             1.12     1.56     2.10     4.84     5.12    10.82    10.07
    9  M_3->2             2.32     4.20     4.74     5.28     6.72    11.62    10.46
    9  M_4->2             2.68     4.88     5.86     6.28     8.44     9.98     9.77
    9  M_1->3             0.00     0.32     0.74     1.12     2.04     2.54     2.25
    9  M_2->3             0.00     0.00     0.02     0.24     0.40     1.42     1.52
    9  M_4->3             0.64     1.28     1.82     2.56     4.24     2.26     2.52
    9  M_1->4             0.92     1.12     1.74     3.00     4.68     3.02     3.88
    9  M_2->4             0.04     0.28     0.70     1.48     2.24     3.82     3.46
    9  M_3->4             0.80     2.64     3.30     3.92     7.36     4.06     4.22
   10  Theta_1         4.80000  7.36000  7.74000  8.08000  9.16000 10.70000 10.90911
   10  Theta_2        18.48000 19.28000 19.66000 20.00000 20.00000 11.18000 10.46099
   10  Theta_3         7.48000 13.28000 13.62000 15.32000 20.00000 13.54000 12.91738
   10  Theta_4        11.28000 11.48000 12.06000 13.08000 17.84000 12.22000 12.31460
   10  M_3->1             0.00     0.00     0.02     0.24     4.40     2.30     2.62
   10  M_4->1             1.68     2.80     3.46     4.52     6.76     3.82     3.94
   10  M_1->2             0.80     2.68     3.74     4.36     6.32     9.58     9.57
   10  M_3->2            10.08    10.56    11.14    11.52    11.72    12.34    12.19
   10  M_4->2             1.48     1.84     3.46     5.40     7.88     5.86     8.38
   10  M_1->3             0.00     0.28     0.70     1.12     3.04     1.02     1.28
   10  M_2->3             0.52     0.92     1.38     1.88     3.72     1.70     1.92
   10  M_4->3             1.12     1.64     2.14     2.76     4.24     2.54     2.81
   10  M_1->4             2.92     4.44     5.22     5.84     7.00     5.02     4.89
   10  M_2->4             0.28     1.68     2.58     3.00     3.80     2.22     2.12
   10  M_3->4             0.76     1.52     1.90     2.64     3.60     2.22     2.25
  All  Theta_1         2.28000  4.36000  4.94000  5.32000  6.20000  4.86000  4.86766
  All  Theta_2         4.24000  4.64000  5.42000  5.88000  8.04000  8.66000  9.78816
  All  Theta_3        10.72000 11.28000 11.78000 12.28000 12.92000 11.98000 12.82785
  All  Theta_4         4.12000  6.76000  7.10000  7.48000  8.28000  6.46000  6.79995
  All  M_3->1             0.56     0.84     1.18     1.56     2.44     1.42     1.44
  All  M_4->1             1.20     1.96     2.82     3.48     3.92     3.22     4.11
  All  M_1->2             3.68     4.36     4.62     4.84     6.52     4.70     4.92
  All  M_3->2             4.76     6.12     6.46     6.76     9.88     8.30     7.88
  All  M_4->2             1.84     2.48     2.78     3.24     4.56     3.14     3.21
  All  M_1->3             1.00     1.76     2.06     2.32     3.16     2.10     2.06
  All  M_2->3             0.84     1.08     1.42     1.72     2.20     1.62     1.84
  All  M_4->3             1.36     2.00     2.30     2.60     2.92     2.46     2.64
  All  M_1->4             1.32     2.28     2.62     2.92     3.12     2.70     2.84
  All  M_2->4             1.00     1.44     1.70     1.92     2.28     1.74     1.67
  All  M_3->4             1.00     1.36     1.62     1.84     2.68     1.70     1.73
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Log-Probability of the data given the model (marginal likelihood = log(P(D|thisModel))
--------------------------------------------------------------------
[Use this value for Bayes factor calculations:
BF = Exp[log(P(D|thisModel) - log(P(D|otherModel)]
shows the support for thisModel]



Locus      Raw Thermodynamic score(1a)  Bezier approximated score(1b)     Harmonic mean(2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      1               -785.90                       -179.78                 -58.99
      2                -79.10                        -52.72                 -49.10
      3                -56.41                        -45.86                 -42.62
      4               -721.05                       -174.20                 -67.12
      5                -40.16                        -35.42                 -34.75
      6               -228.49                        -85.16                 -54.90
      7                -67.12                        -49.52                 -38.79
      8                -85.88                        -55.20                 -45.71
      9               -150.61                        -71.09                 -52.51
     10               -248.32                        -90.67                 -58.32
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  All                -2489.19                       -865.76                -528.96
[Scaling factor = -26.153567]
MCMC run characteristics
========================




Acceptance ratios for all parameters and the genealogies
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Parameter           Accepted changes               Ratio
Theta_1                   9977/9977              1.00000
Theta_2                  10092/10092             1.00000
Theta_3                  10041/10041             1.00000
Theta_4                   9899/9899              1.00000
M_3->1                   10054/10054             1.00000
M_4->1                    9900/9900              1.00000
M_1->2                   10158/10158             1.00000
M_3->2                    9954/9954              1.00000
M_4->2                    9817/9817              1.00000
M_1->3                    9970/9970              1.00000
M_2->3                   10045/10045             1.00000
M_4->3                   10133/10133             1.00000
M_1->4                   10002/10002             1.00000
M_2->4                   10002/10002             1.00000
M_3->4                    9954/9954              1.00000
Genealogies              22127/50105             0.44161
Autocorrelation and Effective sample size
-------------------------------------------------------------------

  Parameter         Autocorrelation(*)   Effective Sample size
  ---------         ---------------      ---------------------
  Theta_1                0.98012               793.25
  Theta_2                0.97700              1143.47
  Theta_3                0.98823               895.64
  Theta_4                0.97697               749.31
  M_3->1                 0.99141               405.34
  M_4->1                 0.98698               561.94
  M_1->2                 0.99576               477.01
  M_3->2                 0.99180               471.82
  M_4->2                 0.98588               543.36
  M_1->3                 0.98585               471.41
  M_2->3                 0.98201               463.83
  M_4->3                 0.97357               567.50
  M_1->4                 0.98871               499.61
  M_2->4                 0.99476               479.47
  M_3->4                 0.98131               512.66
  Ln[Prob(D|P)]          0.97011               907.46
  (*) averaged over loci.


POTENTIAL PROBLEMS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This section reports potential problems with your run, but such reporting is often not 
very accurate. Whith many parameters in a multilocus analysis, it is very common that 
some parameters for some loci will not be very informative, triggering suggestions (for 
example to increase the prior range) that are not sensible. This suggestion tool will 
improve with time, therefore do not blindly follow its suggestions. If some parameters 
are flagged, inspect the tables carefully and judge wether an action is required. For 
example, if you run a Bayesian inference with sequence data, for macroscopic species 
there is rarely the need to increase the prior for Theta beyond 0.1; but if you use 
microsatellites it is rather common that your prior distribution for Theta should have a 
range from 0.0 to 100 or more. With many populations (>3) it is also very common that 
some migration routes are estimated poorly because the data contains little or no 
information for that route. Increasing the range will not help in such situations, 
reducing number of parameters may help in such situations.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Param 10 (Locus 2): Upper prior boundary seems too low! 
Param 11 (Locus 3): Upper prior boundary seems too low! 
Param 2 (Locus 4): Upper prior boundary seems too low! 
Param 3 (Locus 4): Upper prior boundary seems too low! 
Param 8 (Locus 5): Upper prior boundary seems too low! 
Param 8 (Locus 7): Upper prior boundary seems too low! 
Param 3 (Locus 8): Upper prior boundary seems too low! 
Param 2 (Locus 9): Upper prior boundary seems too low! 
Param 2 (Locus 10): Upper prior boundary seems too low! 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
